This blog has been about how and why I see a new business model for content businesses developing and the big picture social trends pushing our markets for content that way. I made some of it a public wip in the sense of how it uses a very different set of ideas to get to these conclusions. My intention was to offer the method as an example to one group of trend followers and the conclusion was anything but obvious when I first saw it several years ago. Eventually, it will create great interest (both specific & general). I've offered this set of ideas less as a prediction as much as recognition of what is already happening in slow motion outside of the everyday business currents. This argument and method offers a different way of seeing what is already there & how and why we create when gather into groups as we do. The ideas here and the method (generally) is accessible for anyone in business to use. I tried to share this insight in small pieces as I saw current issues highlight areas of (pivot) change that are already happening and related to these larger, slow moving, social forces. Better metrics, digital data privacy, the market structure related to data connectivity, monetization platforms (both current and potential) are all areas I have considered from the perspective of three key trends.
Even now, I am still not sure who the best audience for the ideas should be. I offer that plainly after the fact but the process served a purpose. It allowed me to ask more questions using time to see it all more clearly. And so I am direct, that does not mean I know exactly what will develop. I do know why it is going to happen when it does, and the outlines of the change offer a lot of valuable information for enterprises.
My last few posts this fall were organized by me a long time ago and only made current recently offer a glimpse of a new industry orientation that will bring more great change. It may read as if it is specific but, it is in fact, very general beyond my main point about the market's orientation.)
(see list of previous posts at the bottom...(and a book recommendation)they sum up the largest areas of change happening now but, if you focus on the method, you may gain a very important edge)
The media business as we know it was built upon the presumption that Choice (as it relates to content) could be manged for consumers by the companies serving them. The business model was predicated upon that idea and it allowed an industry to concentrate (market power) demand and form. Much later, search introduced us to Choice but businesses were just not ready to re-imagine everything. Not yet. The software business went through similar but faster iterations and is a good parallel in some ways and not so much in others.
I am not able to post regularly and am done adding here for now. I will leave the blog and posts up for now. Any future posts will be launched at my trend blog The Root Trend and treated as a distinct topical thread over there. (That is how this began.) If you want to better understand where these ideas come from , I encourage anyone to consider & compare posts I made along the way to the larger trends moving these changes. (See the second post in the link list below) I also encourage everyone to read about social mood and the way socionomcs allows us to see markets of people differently.
Trends of all kinds unfold in different time frames based upon the larger rhythm(s) they are attached to. For Americans, I expect big changes in how we get content, and how we monetize content, to develop over the next three to five years in earnest. In five to seven years time I expect a new industry structure will be born and Americans will use these new tools to emphasize and renew this aspect of our freedom commitment to each other. This is a very short time frame of change for an industry that has been one-way for decades. It is also a critical industry and worth thinking about how it affects us all beyond revenue streams.
I've been told that some people see these ideas as overly general and too lofty, as in "so what?" but the real benefit in seeing these big trends is to see the larger social trajectory and the kinds of things that matter much more than others in specific markets. Everyone is part of many markets at the same time and yes, this may be obvious. Social leads and enterprises of all kinds follow. Technology adoption is not exempt from this rule. There are times when the big picture is what really matters. That is the "Why?" underlying the entire effort. These are the kinds of issues that will matter to enterprises during a prolonged social correction, and yes, this method sees considerable change (social correction) to come. (Changes in money-matters do not change social issues. Changes in our general collective outlook change money-matters in every way imaginable.)
For instance: SOPA is a great example of what is on the way. I think it is a bad idea as is, so even if it were to be passed it would probably be reversed eventually as un-constitutional. It seems like a law empowering a specific mob. In unruly times that will only lead to more bad than good. But mood tells us that increasing regulation is on the way. Lot's of it and all kinds. My favorite digital analogy is made stronger by a mood argument in this case:
When the western frontier became territories and the territories slowly became states, many new rules followed each step. Rules (of all kinds) follow social organization and are a sign that the realm and reach of yesterday's pioneers is being eclipsed now by the new organized groups about to run things. This is part of patterns we lay down predictably. Then, when you add the insight social mood offers in seeing these developing challenges and Bam! The digital world as we know it could change more than we imagine. Any curious reader will immediately ask him or herself how?; what is going to catalyze a new giant round of digital business change? The best way to look at it is to think about what we (collectively) pay attention will change very quickly. For instance, the social anger evident in SOPA is there but it seems very narrow and directed by one influential industry. We understand why SOPA is suggested but is that really how it should be done? A better consideration is how the mood driving SOPA could be rewritten by Congress if the concerns were much more generalized than copyrighted content? The patent market seems screwed up but if IP becomes a hot issue and declining social mood reinforces these concerns, then you can see a likely trajectory. And if that were to happen sometime, what then really matters most about the existing structure of the internet and the world wide web? (Now that is worth being ready for even if it does not happen soon)
Social technology has changed the world and matters a lot but, social mood is defined by borders and that is a higher order consideration in the big picture. And while I agree that the youth of any generation are powerful agents of change, the general impulse people express toward societal structure and borders will trump the idealistic movements offered up in most social seasons. Social anger creates change eventually but this is exactly why looking at trending from the standpoint of social mood makes so much sense in the case of content and businesses serving it.
Here are several posts I've offered over time that I think define this effort. And since this is all medium and long term, they are all relevant still. Please email me with any questions. That link is on right column of blog. Dave
About-Face (part 1) , About-Face (Part 2) A Basic Structural Change , About-Face (part 3) The Business of Monetizing Content The events I suggest here will eventually have specific catalysts but time is better spent by today's enterprises seeing why they are likely in general.
The Social Trending Re- Shaping the Business of Selling Content I did not sew it all up neatly for readers because very little ever is neat and easy. In terms of content, Choice is the main trend and it is like an ecosystem that is powered by changing social mood. Big changes are coming, again.
The Growing Importance of Permission & Accountability Related To Our Digital Data
The Role of Anonymized Data in Better Content Delivery May Change
Social Media Tools Will Continue Evolving With Our Outlook
PS. If you want to learn more about social mood and socionomics (the method) it is about a book's worth of thinking. I suggest you subscribe to The Socionomist. I do. They offer their book free on-line to subscribbers. It will add a lot of depth to the ideas in the magazine and there is also a very good web site that is getting better all the time. Mix these ideas with your background in any market and you will see your business' past, present, and future very differently.
Buy the book attached to this free charting tool for business models. First thing you should notice is the center panel on the page. That is what changes with social mood and why Choice will shape these seemingly highly technical digital search arguments we see int he headlines everyday right now.
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