This post follows About Face. It adds detail to the long term shift I suggest is beginning now. The first post is succinct and includes very condensed ideas. Whether you know the tech side of enterprises or the media side of the business model you can appreciate that if the gathering social momentum is as pervasive as I suggest, then enterprise turnover will be significant. This is a huge, slow moving trend. I offer it now so you may watch it develop long enough to convince you to participate. Large important social trends that involve necessary tools offer profit potential as a way of conveying social importance. This one really matters.
How could a tested business model based on a long established social contract unravel in a matter of several years? And if I can see it, why aren't others suggesting the same thing? A: Dramatic social change is often very difficult to see even as it approaches. The socionomic model gives us social mood (to see trending issues) & suggests that entrenched social values are ideas we have (collectively) placed into long term beliefs and do not often scrutinize them. Social contracts are tested tools and involve the kind of shared values we are more likely to test during larger social corrections (now). The nature of the transaction for digital content has changed. The application of the advertising business model in the digital environment has changed dramatically and will slowly see consumers question parts of it. This is a process and not a headline. Isn't it appropriate that here, at this early high in the information age, we begin to recognize that the detailed information exchange in these transactions needs to be re-examined and maybe re-thought?
In an era when content (supply) has flooded the web, detailed user metrics, never before possible in the realm of old media are being taken for granted. This assumption is misleading and in time will be seen as wrong. Increasingly, consumers will see themselves able to address developing concerns.
If it seems like I am blaming the digital industry for doing something bad to consumers seeking digital content, I am not. Here's my main point: I repeat this over and over at The Root Trend. How we (collectively) value things and ideas of all kinds changes as social mood changes. Socionomics give us a specific lens through which to see trends in societies. The Choice trend I discuss here is a result of the rise of digital interaction mixing in with the convenient delivery of digital content. The Choice trend is an extension of a natural human behavior as we aim to settle the digital frontier. Mixing digital content experiences with Choice has created powerful shifts in demand. The Choice trend will continue to express itself notably as we (collectively) swing away from recent extremes of the share everything trend that seems to have peaked and is beginning to correct. (think: moving averages of behavior in markets) So I am clear: Sharing is not about to stop. No way. Never. The process is about to evolve and become more thought out while reflecting updated social values.
So, if everything I suggest above is happening then how will the next phases begin unfolding in the world of digital content? This is exactly where social mood can help a little. As social mood turns negative and the social correction proceeds, sharing (as has become typical) will be questioned and scrutinized on many levels. This is another group process where the moving average will shift to the side of sharing somewhat less with fewer people over time. As part of the same process, the collective "we" will (generally) want to narrow our discourse into smaller groups that are somehow more qualified. In a lagging manner, parallel to this, businesses will tell us they need the higher quality user data in order to monetize the content experiences. I am sure politicians will try to regulate this somehow. This is generally when and where I see the fault line that will introduce a change previously held back by a combination of technology and existing market structure:
Consumer facing distribution enterprises will deliver content in exchange for an exclusive new version of high quality user data thereby creating brand new market segments that may well take over the entire end user distribution system. The content facing enterprise side will include all sponsorship activity and will more effectively allocate opportunity and access to high quality use data that follows the new ethos of the market. New kinds of efficiency will be introduced recognizing aspects like user determined quality, and floods of small innovations will happen without need for massive start-up dollars because the need for these tools will be clear. (It's a good thing since these trends will likely be accompanied by a period of shrinking moneyness, generally, and this is one more reason to stay with the thought.)
Will the big existing players simply co-opt all this changing market demand and corral US content users into jumbo holding pens making sweeping, questionable promises? That is what they would do if allowed to right now, but no, it is not likely. When these broadly shared values unleash the shifted demand, the social scene will have changed a lot from today. The world of content platforms is about to become personal & seemingly infinite and will be supported by an entirely new universe of small enterprises that are dedicated to being consumer facing. This distinction (and opportunity) should not be minimized.
Structural change in the markets for digital content can be expected to develop in coming years. Respect it and you may win a place at the table. Ignore it or try to corrupt it and you may lose. Social corrections seek out (as their primary group purpose) what really matters most. This business dynamic I am suggesting is so very important and will happen ( I believe) because this will come to be seen as an American basic right built into (or suggested by) our social charter from 220 years ago (our Bill of Rights). Prior to the digital ecosystem these changes would not have been likely because data collection and dissemination was very different. In this way there is no looking back. Technology is a crucial part of the process but what is more important is how we value the things technology can do for us. Those estimations of value change as social mood changes and sometimes change a lot in short periods of time.
The advertising business model has created enormous value for Americans over our history and with this coming change will be reset to achieve new levels of profitability. This basic structural shift will make sure opportunity and capital are aligned with what really matters.
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