1 05 11 note: as I look back at this diagram the smaller privacy related trending issue should be a much smaller shape relative to the other macro trends. It will still have a monster impact over time on how it shapes how and what businesses offer consumers.
orig publish date: Oct 9th 2010
The diagram below establishes basic proportions to the social trending dynamics shaping the business of media. What We The People want from tools that serve us in getting the content we seek, the way we want, is where things are going.
This diagram below matters because it effectively organizes a hierarchy of effects shaping demand patterns. It may seem very simple but it goes a long way toward predicting a number of events, not too far away, in the process I call the (industrial) (r)Evolution of Media.
There's no doubt this description is simplistic. It is intended that way. Using trending dynamics to see how an industry serving critical social needs will evolve is not a fine tool but it does allow for much needed directionality when most now are looking in very different directions. Yes, it is also intended to spark conversation. And since diagrams can often say so much more in the same space I will let this stand with only the few comments that follow.
A social correction is one of two primary states a country finds itself in at any time. The society is either expanding or correcting previous expansion. This oversimplified description suggests that very specific kinds of social trend dynamics can be expected. Societies of people are seen building specific kinds of trends during corrective periods. The definition of these periods of social correction requires more reading. If you are interested, I encourage you to buy & read this book, though it is not short read.
Social correction dynamics will shape how Choice and Privacy issues are expressed by groups of people (read as "markets") differently than if this were a time of social expansion. Privacy issues, in fact, would probably not be developing if this were not a large social correction. Choice is a dominant trend for media companies and not an option. Over time, delivering Choice and acknowledging how control of the exchanges between content producers and consumers has fundamentally altered the structure of the market will speed even more changes. It promises to be a self fulfilling loop.("If it is possible then I want more!") These self feeding social trend dynamics are already unfolding only they are doing so in uneven increments from a demographic standpoint. Technology, and not age, is the divider at this very moment. It is very easy to miss much of what is happening if you are off the cutting edge of gadgets now. The challenge with being on the cutting edge is how the white noise of small trending increments seems to be all consuming to those involved in them. For instance Face book is a wonderful sharing platform and it has been evolving lately. It is however a business that is based on advertising and CPMs and uses the historic way (read as "backward"?) of seeing its relationship with its own customers. The main problem with free and freemium platforms is how they skew an operator's thinking into seeing themselves being immune from the full Choice trend dynamic. It is not enough to extol how you serve Choice conveniently in one respect, and ignore how you miss it elsewhere in your service. Choice is about sophisticated consumers taking control back in the business of feeding their own heads with content they Choose to get and disseminate through every different portion of their lives. Sophistication is isolated to certain demographics for now but, over time the shared vales of these early adopters will spread and that will broaden demand for Choice. There are no shortcuts around Choice. The old game is over...or ending very quickly. Choice is happening because technology is allowing it to happen. This should be thoroughly expected and any company able to serve Choice effectively now has a huge advantage. Miss serving Choice and your days are being counted right now.
Privacy related trending issues may well seem like an outlier in this diagram. In fact, right now, from the perspective of the macro-American moving average, it is fair to call them that. Over the next several years, however, they will express themselves increasingly in diverse and complicated ways amongst all Americans. You can see the early warnings of this new socially shared and expressed value. From the headlines only this week:
- Is a funeral held in public a reason to forgo freedom of speech, even if the speech is heinous? The US Constitution is much more careful about freedom of speech than it is specific about privacy related issues. We will hear a lot about this from many social perspectives soon.
- Face book allows for the creation of private groups.(more control to customers)
- Consumers can now more easily opt out of behavioral tracking on line by visiting a web site
In time privacy related shared values in large segments of the US society will demand ways to shield the glare of our life on line from anyone and everyone. This is the result of a large and long lasting social correction produced by pervasive negative social mood. This dynamic will continue increasing for several years at least.
So the real question for readers here is how will any and all of this effect the formation and survival of media companies serving Americans their content wishes? How will the successful companies of the future create, distribute, and capture value for each and every consumer they serve? It's a great question and while I see a specific way for this to happen, these trending dynamics shared above will have to evolve just a little more. The critical point about social trends is how they evolve according to events and not a time line of any kind. So that means the space between two events should not be measured in time.
I am always eager to discuss these issues so if you're interested in getting ahead of this in your business I encourage you to reach out to me using the email link on the top right column of this blog. The first step to serving these trends is understanding them. The next step is organization of needed skills and resources to design a business that is capable of meeting Choice. I believe the future of the advertising business model is very bright (and socially necessary) but that does not mean it will look anything like it does today. The current stumbling blocks to change is the structure of the existing media companies and the currency used to monetize "impressions". Public companies are not flexible enterprises. They cannot just erase one set of profit promises and hope the new untested ways will work. They are slaves to many opinions that are ignorant of changing market forces affecting management. This lack of needed change is acting like building pressure. When iroM happens, it will come quicker than anyone expects. Will you be ready? Ready, Set,......
Dave
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