1. The era of Choice must be served by all media (related) enterprises
(big picture, yes but, this trend is specific to media).
2. Social media tools are not a fad but do not extrapolate current trends
to the moon; instead consider other vectors
3. The post-Boomer generational divide will be the catalyst for dramatic (American) social change, and will be especially evident in the media business (well beyond demographics)
4. The manner of profitability of media enterprises along with the channels used is evolving to reflect the changing utility of content in our lives.5. Competitive bottlenecks, vertical stacking, and exclusive platforms will be viewed increasingly as anti-customer, anti-progress, and just plain greedy.
click through for some discussion...
Seeing these trends...
General >>>>>>>>>>>Specific
The social trends around us help shape our individual experience and choices. Understanding how social trending is very broadly structured can be especially helpful to marketers by putting trends into the context of their likely size and period. Media companies have witnessed unprecedented change with the advent of the information age precisely because media is built into our founding agreement as a people. Media has become a primary social tool and together with government protection for decades, the utility of our media tools was allowed to develop deeply and broadly across the US. Most media enterprises are now stuck focusing on broad based new competition and rapid change that has unsettled many established competitors. Virtually every sector of the business has seen dramatic change. The last segment of the business to begin to see this same magnitude of change is video and TV programming. Despite a fixed system of revenue distribution(in the US), change is coming, quickly. Why? The industrial revolution of media is a group process that will, over time, make us better at all we do with information. That is the central theme to remember as you consider these five developments:
#1. The era of Choice is media's dominant social trend that is similar to some key patterns we saw emerge around the time of the industrial revolution. The generalized capacity for feedback has changed our societal experience of content and therefore this new momentum must be supported by all enterprises. Choice does not mean endless consumer control but merely degrees depending upon the market. Some enterprises will find, for now,that the input from social tools transforms their business over time. Many have or will see change more quickly. The act of specialization of core functions will create competitive diversity where there was once very limited competition. We see it and hear it everyday; feedback from core constituencies is the lifeblood of today's successful enterprises.
#2. Social media is not a fad but it is also probably not an industry populated by $10 & $20 billion giants. Digital social tools are a new feature that will settle into a multiplicity of uses public and private, personal and professional. They make us better at all we do together. Harnessing these tools/skill sets inside of enterprises will be a thriving business in the next decade. Behavioral targeting supported by social platforms will be forced to become more transparent as perceptions eventually evolve toward this being a one-sided business model even though we may seem far from that now. This will happen because our collective social perceptions of value will change toward these new cool tools. (For a detailed discussion try this post at my other blog.) (think: Viacom v. Google, IP & copyright issues) Socially; the new emphasis will increasingly be on the group over individual needs. Socially shared values were reversed when these tools began developing years ago.#3. Post-Boomer generations see a very different world and have different values from their Boomer elders. As the mantle of leadership is questioned and transferred (over time) there will be what seems like endless battles over issues related to social contracts settled for a long time. Great social changes always happen at the seams of key generations and this one will be a great show. This is a much longer term (bigger)trend than Choice is, (it is a higher order social trend), but it is secondary to the media universe in the present moment. It is too simple to notice how the habits of young media consumers are so different. It is their perceptions and shared values that will create social friction and considerable change, especially within media's universe.
#4. As Choice continually transforms the media enterprise the view towards profitability is changing. This does not mean "to be profitable" or "to not be profitable". No, instead it suggests how the age of CPM and CPP's (cost per thousands and cost per rating point) will be less relevant specifically because of the social value placed upon feedback. The age of information processing will finally catch up to media enterprises and the industry will come to be seen as one that regards interaction as much as any other. Successful companies will capture this critical point in their value proposition.
#5. Finally, regulation limiting distribution of information services and regulatory actions designed to increase information bottlenecks will increasingly be viewed as anti-competitive, greedy, and bad politics. Think cable companies that increasingly operate like monopolies to increase vertical revenue streams because regulators will not encourage market competition using available public resources (spectrum); think net neutrality issues in an age of limited connect-ability (monopoly & oligopoly). Choice must find each consumer and not limit them by limiting their connection to everyone else by allowing only one (high speed) choice. Customers rarely find Value in a wall meant to keep out competition.(pretty obvious, right?) These broadly developing social values will also affect how we view proprietary software platforms in a similar way. Businesses that intentionally exclude competition and limit choice in order to make it easier for them to compete will be increasingly questioned and criticized. This protective mindset, once considered savvy, will be increasingly viewed as anti-social/anti-market. The power is coming back to "the group" as innovations will not be rewarded in perpetuity.
Each one of these five broad social trends occurs from different sized social impulses (values) and have different periods(lengths). Each one can be viewed as being from one of the three primary social trends that inspire this blog. The era of Choice, social mood, and generational turnover dynamics. (In fact, most every social trend emanates from the developing social mood. And while nothing is ever predetermined, obviously, the primary social trend, social mood, allows business a unique window to see their changing markets.)
For lots of additional reading on Generational influences
For broad reading on social mood, here is the text
original publish date 5 05 10
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