In order to see where we (American society) are taking media (a tool with great social utility), we must first see three dynamics separately and then together. Doing this will allow insight on how and why the media business model, as we know it, must fracture and specialize along specific pathways. The first of these three dynamics is, by far, the most important:
My primary email account gets a grand total of only five scheduled daily deliveries that I signed up for using that address intentionally. Maybe, there is another five that are weekly emails, too. There's also probably a handful of occasional retail entries but they are on a short leash. Otherwise it all goes to Gmail which acts as a clearing house. That is how I choose to manage the email tool.
The current recession has been devastating to many media companies that rely upon advertising revenue. The causality attached to this change, as I read about it most days, has to do with a cyclical decline that is viewed by many as unprecedented and includes new competition from web based competitors. Of course, there are plenty of far sighted pros who see the long term term changes continuing to unfold in that direction but to label it new competition from the internet is too simplistic. Consultants and gurus directing the world of media enterprises all preach very specific solutions that involve incorporating social tools as a means to a better end. The more sophisticated among them see clearly how social tools are no answer or end but, a means to the kind of overall cultural change that is needed.(more effective communication on multiple levels at the same time)
Back two+ years ago when this thread about media was developing and broken off from my other (broader) blog,I did so because of one basic and very broad insight. Choice. We are living in the Era of Choice where technology has enabled Choice on many more levels of our individual lives. And since businesses are tools designed by people, for people, these perceived evolving needs necessarily lag the changes. The more you think about that last thought the more painfully obvious it seems and yet, we see some of the most "plugged in" companies struggling today with the very idea of Choice. The universe of media enterprises is where this revolution will unfold most notably. (It has yet to)
Viacom's billion dollar lawsuit of Google for not protecting Viacom's products got me thinking hard three+ years ago. (Amazingly, that lawsuit continues today.) And even though the headlines try to tell us what to think, we cannot escape the idea that Choice has emerged as a benefit of technology and that despite a concern that it may be somehow taken away, 13 years after Yahoo was introduced to American's consciousness (by going public), we are in no danger of losing Choice. It now belongs to everyone. No where is this developing revolution more apparent than in the media vertical.
The long held formula in the world of monetizing content holds that the more eyes you control the more valuable your products. It still seems like a reasonable proposition but the pervasive nature of Choice is still not being considered and that is the very message of social tools in the digital environment.
Just as I control my email experience, just as Face Book and Twitter provide Choice in a meaningful dynamic, the basic design of enterprises serving these needs are slow to come around to the one main implication that Choice demands. And since it was the search engines that first gave us a taste of Choice, I believe it likely that some new derivative enterprise will finally wake up and deliver the real promise behind Choice. Based on everything we are seeing now, however, it will be a while longer.
You might think of Choice as an international negotiation involving many member states that see the world one way, and the lone holdout seeing it their own way in a manner that clearly serves their interests. Short of the least desirable path to agreement (which is some version of war), the end must be achieved by agreement. And since businesses serve people as if they are simple minded tools, the result of Choice thrust upon the world's markets for content has but one outcome (eventually): mutual respect. This will only arrive when businesses acknowledge how the power dynamic has changed dramatically because of the technology fueling Choice.
What does mutual respect mean in the media vertical? It means that the nature of the partnership that has existed for decades is now changed by technology and that if the Viacom's of the world wish to protect their assets, then the consumers of that content should be afforded the same dynamic. It means that how we will value this new balance will change how we value many other things in the business dynamic. It means new business models that serve Choice explicitly. It also requires a renaissance in marketing that is clearly underway.
So, for instance, as we witness new mobile marketing opportunities develop that choose to reflect the old values of media enterprises, we can be sure that outcomes not reflecting the new realities are short term (revenue) solutions at best. Until Choice is firmly addressed, it means that the much needed better metrics of engagement will go wanting until a true compromise is forged. (There are many rewards beyond engagement metrics that will bloom from the businesses that reflect Choice.)
I've often referred to the digital environment as a frontier and as such it is wild and untamed and prone to unexpected outcomes in the short term. Lawlessness in such an environment is perceived by the viewer and in the end, it is compromise that brings people together for better experiences. If we begin by acknowledging that Choice is the social impulse driving the settling of the digital frontier, then the longer lasting outcomes can begin to take shape.
Yes, I see a series of business models emerging from what used to be one. In order to get there it must be done incrementally. Debt burdened enterprises cannot achieve the flexibility to deliver upon Choice without compromising on what they offer. At its core, the changes in the business of media is about social changes that appear to have little to do with the media business. As what we value (and how we value it) changes, so too must the enterprises serving anything related to those values.
In time, savvy business enterprises will see how "trust" is the lynch pin of this formula. Out on a untamed digital frontier, if an enterprise wants respect for their products then the return offering will be the same. (Even given these developments over time, fences were still needed on America's last frontier but, what really matters is the nature of the cooperation established.) The answer that social tools have shown us lately is how Choice is more important than anything else as we move that way impulsively. The next generation of businesses will see this and get in between the consumer of content and the same businesses complaining that they deserve protection from piracy. If you are a lover of old westerns, this is when the new sheriff comes into the picture. Depending upon the movie, the immediate outcome changes but you know the real ending just by looking around today. The Era of Choice is what matters more than anything else. It is all around us and wanting. Dave
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