Is the roll-out of Wi-MAX in four major US cities part of a true revolutionary event or just another evolutionary step for media?
Readers of anything related to Darwinism know well how evolution is thought to proceed by way of scattered episodes of great change punctuated by long periods of stability. Isn't it interesting that in the realm of social trending we see the same patterns?
A friend mentioned recently how Wi-MAX was likely to be launched in the next year in Atlanta. I had followed this potential development closely more than two years ago and saw endless news stories about delays and cancellations. I stopped following it only to see that as of today Baltimore, Las Vegas, Portland, and now Atlanta have a functioning commercial Wi-MAX system.
To the world of media enterprises this is a "Wow!" kind of development (in the intermediate time horizon). Since most execs in the media business are in their turrets 24-7 with a perpetual game face on these days, this long moment is likely to pass as another piece of streaming bad news. Does anyone remember the Ford campaign last year about their Sync technology? It was definitely targeted toward younger, first time buyer consumers already familiar with it. These two events are about younger consumers and their proclivity to adopt newer and more efficient technology <and why(?)>. Ask a 21 year old (like my nephew) what he's listening to and watching and he is more likely, at first, to point to his iPod and offer an immediate example. Boomers desperately want to be on the edge of the technology adoption curve but they do not have the advantage that kids today are demonstrating.
By adding the reality of Wi-MAX to American large cities, consumers now will have more Choice than ever. This is a great development even though it is still positioned as a concern every single day. Choice is what this era is all about to consumers of content. Choice is the dominant trend the media business is expressing.
Choice is what really matters. Enterprises not capable of providing content consumers Choice will deflate in value more and more over time.
A footnote in the press releases I read by the Wi-MAX seller Clearwire for NYC to get service in 2010 sometime. And while I won't be surprised when a deep pocketed business contributor holds that debut off for a while with political pressure in the right place, it is only a matter of time. The Era of Choice is not about endless entertainment options. It is about people everywhere getting more of what they want when they want it because they can. That kind of basic perceived need, now easily allowed by technology, is not to be denied and has almost unmeasurable upside for our overall economy. In the meantime, many misaligned companies will go hungry and appeal to the government for help.If the government saw this trend clearly, WiMAX's launch would be moved up.
Wi-MAX is a revolutionary trend development if and when people adopt it widely. Technology alone does not incite social trends. Socially accepted technology is how the largest trends leave a deep footprint. Why? Because they reflect our changing values and right now so many shared values are being questioned and are changing at all levels of our society. Media's dramatic changes are simply a reflection of the larger American social scene.
In the long view, media is evolving. The successful tools <read as companies and services> will provide versions of Choice to consumers in order to compete successfully.
Boomer adults were quick to catch onto Face Book, and now Twitter. These tools are derivatives of Choice and important ones too. More important to the overall trend of Choice, however, are the imprinted experiences of young adults coming of age now who see media tools as vehicles to Choice. This is a product of their early experiences. This is a very different world view from their parents'. Social tools, as important as they are, will only ever provide further impetus for Choice in the world of media enterprises. Choice must still be enabled and delivered. Pretenders will be weeded out...quickly.
ps. This is exactly why better metrics are needed. With so much change so quickly in consumption behavior, "guessing" is what failed enterprises will have listed as their cause of death. Winners, on the other hand, will know exactly why they are successful.
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