At the top of the right column are three (longer) posts looking at social media and its message to all marketers and especially those managing old media enterprises. The term social media became a catch phrase very quickly and is being used by marketers of all stripes. A very insightful analyst's blog offers up a great list of the who and what of this developing social/business trend. My three posts mentioned above look at the same trend from a very broad behavioral perspective, and what this implies about where we are taking our social experience (generally) next. Since this is not obvious on its face, I submit there is great value in the ability to generalize correctly (right now anyway).
When I became interested in using trending insight as a practical method to see demand more clearly in markets, what I did not appreciate, was how long it would take for me to develop a qualitative appreciation of social trends. For example, in order to understand what was really happening in old media, I first needed to be able to see social trending in its most basic form and only slowly apply that to the markets of people who consume media in chunks. How businesses determine what really matters when big newness unfolds (like social media is now) is a function of trial and error in the short term but often it is much more practical to begin by seeing the much larger picture. That is how responsible forecasting begins. My contribution here will (hopefully) demonstrate that by following the lessons derived from business-related applications of new technology like social media marketing, we may end up chasing lagging indications (or even incorrect ones) of what matters. So then, what really matters (in the big picture) ?
Technology and people's use of it are the platform for a secular (really long term) social movement. I call it the "era of choice" but it is a really just one leg of what we call the "information age". A big part of the current general social dynamic is people, individuals, finding their voices and using them in the digital frontier. The digital frontier allows people to use all their senses and express them in ways that are being patterned socially and over time are quickly being ascribed as new social norms. Think of it this way; in order for a frontier to transform into a town, the two most important social ingredients are cooperation and trust.
So, back to my perspective on media (and advertising in general) and the implications for what really matters.
The population in general (groups, not individuals) lack trust toward both advertising specifically and media that employs the ad business model in general. This trust issue is a much bigger stumbling block that may first appear and citing specific examples of who does it right and who's wrong do not matter as much as simply recognizing that this attitude has persisted, grown, and will grow much, much more. As I've stated often in these pages, social mood is a moving average of attitudes toward the future's constant uncertainty, and when <socially> we apply generalized pessimism to a shared perspective, we create <in our social groups> very different social constructs (read as: trends). This is also why this discipline needs to be practiced by looking at individual verticals separately. Attitudes measured by using a moving average need to be carefully defined by industry sectors to see the trends that matter to us most. Broad social opinions of distrust and disbelief are dominant during broad social corrections( that is what's happening now). So what?
What really matters in media right now is being screamed at us from the channels of social media that are developing. Trust is essential in the Era of Choice. Why? With power shifting dynamically back to the consumer, enterprises must develop techniques that do not simply pretend to trust but, ones that actually honor this enforceable demand. And in order to do this, marketing will need a true renaissance...not just tweaks to the 'permission marketing' framework.
Old media is now on the front line. It began with newspapers first and has moved to broadcast quickly. With established business identities that are rigid and unyielding, old media enterprises are begrudgingly trying to "monetize the Internet". My perspective is a little harsh but it is analogous to a trust fund kid finding themselves on their own for the first time. Old media must first learn how to compete with more than just the licensed outlets across town. Competition in the digital realm is based upon what the market really wants...not what they offered in a time slot. It really is that simple but it will require two steps back in order to begin stepping forward. Public companies are loathe to taking steps backwards. They cannot support real risk taking. They will accept sub par performance for a long time to avoid the pain associated with long term investments. In the business world, as in social settings, immediate gratification rules the day. This will change. It always does. Step back far enough and the seasonality of social trending becomes very obvious.
So on the outside chance that the Carl Malones of the world are reading, channels that firmly establish the lasting trust of consumers of content will be possible only through a new construct that enforces a new code of behavior in the business of selling (distributing) content. This "construct" will be a new marketing organization that actually keeps the interests of the consumers front and center, and not the advertisers that monetizing the content production. Think about it.....a "publisher's clearing house" where consumers trade off detailed profiles of themselves in exchange for highly targeted content where reaching those consumers is considered valuable enough to justify the cost of knowing that much, and keeping the agreement in tact (forever). Imagining this revolutionary kind of arrangement would do two things. CPM's might just become CPH (cost per hundreds) of highly targeted consumers where their identities are actually, and permanently respected. A government licensed enterprise is not going to produce this arrangement. A market that rewards the innovation and one that punishes violators with swift action will support this vision. And second, this new consumer focus will be reinforced by the separation of content distribution and content production as advertisers seek new levels of efficiency and effectiveness combined in one. (All these demands are part of the work of a social correction, and it has already begun).
What will it take for this next leg of social development? Cooperation and trust.
Apply this lesson liberally both inside the vertical, and outside in the markets of consumers.
And like the commerical said, "You can pay me now or pay me later". This new dynamic will eventually happen because the younger generations do not feel compelled to repeat the past as they build their digital universe based on their view of the world...just like the Boomers did.
from today's (9 03 08) Washington Post: Face book Ads Target You Where It Hurts
and again this AM another Face book story that suggests their PR machine is listening:
A Social Network Where You Can Be Too Social WP 9 04 08 (to me this story is a good example of developing social norms more than it is about business policy)
(is cooperation and trust scalable? it better be if you expect to market well to younger generations and any disconnect right now has more to do with the generational blurring)
update: 9 05 08 great post about social networking for Boomers:
http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?id=1006502&src=article2_newsltr
ready, set, go!
Comments